Global Macro Trust Plunges to $1.33M Loss on Futures Missteps

TL;DR

**GLOBAL MACRO TRUST is bleeding cash, with a $1.33 million net loss this quarter, making it a clear sell for any remaining unitholders.**

AI Summary

GLOBAL MACRO TRUST experienced a significant downturn in the second quarter of 2025, reporting a net loss of $1,330,113 for the three months ended June 30, 2025, a stark contrast to the net income of $3,914,452 in the same period of 2024. This decline was primarily driven by a substantial net realized and unrealized loss of $1,205,227 on futures and forward currency contracts, compared to a gain of $3,915,086 in Q2 2024. For the six months ended June 30, 2025, the Trust recorded a net loss of $1,356,288, reversing a net income of $9,762,708 in the prior year. Total trust capital decreased by 9.95% from $70,303,642 at December 31, 2024, to $63,311,552 at June 30, 2025, largely due to redemptions totaling $5,635,802 and the net loss. Interest income also saw a decline, falling from $1,008,989 in Q2 2024 to $704,423 in Q2 2025. The Trust ceased offering new units for sale effective May 1, 2022, focusing on existing investors and monthly redemptions.

Why It Matters

This significant net loss and decline in trust capital for GLOBAL MACRO TRUST signals a challenging period for its existing unitholders, impacting their investment returns directly. The negative performance, particularly from futures and forward currency contracts, suggests that the Trust's macro-driven strategies underperformed in the current market environment, potentially raising questions about the efficacy of its trading models. For investors, this means a substantial erosion of value, with net asset value per unit falling across all series. In a competitive landscape where alternative investment vehicles vie for capital, such a performance could deter any potential future offerings, even though new units are currently not being sold.

Risk Assessment

Risk Level: high — The Trust reported a net loss of $1,330,113 for the three months ended June 30, 2025, a dramatic reversal from a $3,914,452 net income in the prior year. This substantial loss, primarily driven by a $1,205,227 net realized and unrealized loss on futures and forward currency contracts, indicates significant exposure to volatile market movements and a failure in their trading strategies during the period.

Analyst Insight

Investors should consider liquidating their positions in GLOBAL MACRO TRUST given the substantial net losses and declining trust capital. The consistent negative performance across multiple unit series and the significant losses from futures trading suggest a high-risk, underperforming investment.

Financial Highlights

debt To Equity

N/A

revenue

$704,423

operating Margin

N/A

total Assets

$64,970,957

total Debt

$1,659,405

net Income

-$1,330,113

eps

N/A

gross Margin

N/A

cash Position

$3,737,067

revenue Growth

-30.18%

Revenue Breakdown

Key Numbers

• $1.33M — Net Loss (for the three months ended June 30, 2025, a significant reversal from $3.91M net income in Q2 2024.)
• $1.21M — Net Realized & Unrealized Losses (on futures and forward currency contracts for Q2 2025, compared to a $3.92M gain in Q2 2024.)
• $63.31M — Total Trust Capital (at June 30, 2025, down 9.95% from $70.30M at December 31, 2024.)
• $5.64M — Redemptions (for the six months ended June 30, 2025, contributing to the capital decrease.)
• -2.46% — Total Return (Series 1) (for the three months ended June 30, 2025, indicating negative performance for unitholders.)
• $1,123.20 — NAV per Series 1 Unit (at June 30, 2025, down from $1,158.52 at December 31, 2024.)
• $704,423 — Interest Income (for Q2 2025, a decrease from $1,008,989 in Q2 2024.)
• $829,309 — Net Expenses (for Q2 2025, a decrease from $1,009,623 in Q2 2024.)

Key Players & Entities

• GLOBAL MACRO TRUST (company) — registrant
• MILLBURN RIDGEFIELD LLC (company) — Managing Owner
• Securities and Exchange Commission (regulator) — regulatory body
• Commodity Futures Trading Commission (regulator) — regulatory body
• $1,330,113 (dollar_amount) — net loss for three months ended June 30, 2025
• $3,914,452 (dollar_amount) — net income for three months ended June 30, 2024
• $1,205,227 (dollar_amount) — net realized and unrealized losses on futures and forward currency contracts for three months ended June 30, 2025
• $70,303,642 (dollar_amount) — total trust capital at December 31, 2024
• $63,311,552 (dollar_amount) — total trust capital at June 30, 2025
• $5,635,802 (dollar_amount) — total redemptions for the six months ended June 30, 2025

FAQ

Risk Factors

• Futures and Forward Currency Contract Volatility [high — market]: The Trust experienced significant net realized and unrealized losses of $1,205,227 on futures and forward currency contracts in Q2 2025. This is a stark reversal from a gain of $3,915,086 in the prior year's quarter, indicating substantial negative performance driven by these instruments.
• Deterioration in Trust Capital [high — financial]: Total trust capital decreased by 9.95% from $70,303,642 at December 31, 2024, to $63,311,552 at June 30, 2025. This decline was driven by both net losses and redemptions totaling $5,635,802 for the six-month period.
• Negative Total Return [medium — market]: Series 1 experienced a total return of -2.46% for the three months ended June 30, 2025. This negative performance directly impacts unitholder value, with NAV per Series 1 Unit falling from $1,158.52 at year-end 2024 to $1,123.20 at June 30, 2025.
• Cessation of New Unit Offerings [medium — operational]: The Trust ceased offering new units for sale effective May 1, 2022. This strategy focuses on existing investors and monthly redemptions, potentially limiting growth and liquidity options for new capital.
• Commodity Futures and Forex Regulations [medium — regulatory]: As a commodity investment pool, the Trust is subject to regulations from the CFTC and NFA, as well as exchange rules. Changes in these regulations or non-compliance could materially impact operations and performance.

Industry Context

The global macro fund industry typically employs diverse strategies across various asset classes, including currencies, interest rates, and commodities, to capitalize on macroeconomic trends. However, this sector is highly sensitive to market volatility and shifts in global economic conditions. Competition is intense, with many funds vying for investor capital by offering unique strategies, though recent performance trends in some macro funds have been challenging due to unpredictable market movements.

Regulatory Implications

As a commodity investment pool, Global Macro Trust is subject to stringent regulations by the CFTC and NFA. Changes in these regulatory frameworks, particularly concerning derivatives trading or reporting requirements, could impose additional compliance burdens or operational restrictions. Non-compliance can lead to significant penalties and reputational damage.

What Investors Should Do

1. Review derivative strategy and risk management
2. Assess the impact of redemptions on liquidity and performance
3. Evaluate the long-term viability of the 'closed-end' strategy
4. Monitor NAV per unit trends closely

Key Dates

• 2022-05-01: Cessation of new unit offerings — Indicates a shift in strategy towards managing existing capital and redemptions rather than growth through new investments.
• 2024-12-31: Total Trust Capital — $70,303,642, serving as a baseline for the subsequent decline.
• 2025-06-30: Net Loss for Q2 — Reported a net loss of $1,330,113, a significant reversal from Q2 2024's net income.
• 2025-06-30: Total Trust Capital — $63,311,552, a decrease of 9.95% from year-end 2024, driven by losses and redemptions.
• 2025-06-30: NAV per Series 1 Unit — $1,123.20, down from $1,158.52 at December 31, 2024, reflecting performance decline.

Glossary

Trust Capital

The total net asset value of the trust, representing the ownership stake of all unitholders. (A key indicator of the fund's size and value, which has seen a significant decrease.)

Net Realized and Unrealized Loss

The total loss from financial positions that have been closed (realized) and those that are still open (unrealized) at the reporting date. (The primary driver of the Trust's recent poor performance, particularly on futures and currency contracts.)

NAV per Unit

Net Asset Value per Unit, representing the value of each individual unit of ownership in the trust. (Directly reflects the performance of the trust for individual investors.)

Redemptions

The process by which investors sell their units back to the trust, receiving the NAV per unit in return. (A significant factor contributing to the decrease in total trust capital.)

Futures and Forward Currency Contracts

Derivative financial instruments used to speculate on or hedge against future price movements in currencies or commodities. (These instruments have been the source of substantial losses for the Trust in the current period.)

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Global Macro Trust has experienced a dramatic downturn compared to the prior year. For the three months ended June 30, 2025, the Trust reported a net loss of $1,330,113, a stark contrast to the $3,914,452 net income in the same period of 2024. This reversal was primarily driven by significant losses on futures and forward currency contracts, which swung from a gain of $3,915,086 in Q2 2024 to a loss of $1,205,227 in Q2 2025. Consequently, total trust capital has decreased by 9.95% year-to-date, and interest income has also fallen.

Filing Documents

• c765-20250630x10q.htm (10-Q) — 4910KB
• c765-20250630xex31_1.htm (EX-31.1) — 13KB
• c765-20250630xex31_2.htm (EX-31.2) — 13KB
• c765-20250630xex31_3.htm (EX-31.3) — 13KB
• c765-20250630xex31_4.htm (EX-31.4) — 13KB
• c765-20250630xex32_1.htm (EX-32.1) — 7KB
• c765-20250630xex32_2.htm (EX-32.2) — 7KB
• c765-20250630xex32_3.htm (EX-32.3) — 7KB
• c765-20250630xex32_4.htm (EX-32.4) — 7KB
• 0001145765-25-000006.txt ( ) — 14901KB
• c765-20250630.xsd (EX-101.SCH) — 39KB
• c765-20250630_cal.xml (EX-101.CAL) — 39KB
• c765-20250630_def.xml (EX-101.DEF) — 156KB
• c765-20250630_lab.xml (EX-101.LAB) — 226KB
• c765-20250630_pre.xml (EX-101.PRE) — 238KB
• c765-20250630x10q_htm.xml (XML) — 4112KB

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS

ITEM 1. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS Global Macro Trust

Financial statements

Financial statements For the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024 (unaudited) 1 Condensed Schedules of Investments (a) 2 6 8 10 Notes to the Financial Statements 12 (a) At June 30, 2025 (unaudited) and December 31, 2024 (b) For the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024 (unaudited) (c) For the six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024 (unaudited) Global Macro Trust June 30, 2025 (unaudited) December 31, 2024 ASSETS EQUITY IN TRADING ACCOUNTS: Investments in U.S. Treasury notes – at fair value (amortized cost $ 14,061,838 and $ 14,444,514 ) $ 14,060,293 $ 14,460,346 Net unrealized appreciation on open futures and forward currency contracts 341,835 547,665 Due from brokers, net 2,437,362 2,247,936 Cash denominated in foreign currencies (cost $ 2,430 and $ 165,305 ) 2,453 155,929 Total equity in trading accounts 16,841,943 17,411,876 INVESTMENTS IN U.S. TREASURY NOTES – at fair value (amortized cost $ 44,058,890 and $ 50,602,203 ) 44,057,383 50,649,558 CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS 3,737,067 3,178,544 ACCRUED INTEREST RECEIVABLE 334,564 399,394 TOTAL $ 64,970,957 $ 71,639,372 LIABILITIES AND TRUST CAPITAL LIABILITIES: Net unrealized depreciation on open futures and forward currency contracts $ 481,020 $ 44,821 Due to Managing Owner 35,919 - Accrued management fees 112,895 125,023 Accrued installment selling commissions 112,903 126,251 Accrued trade execution and clearing costs 3,520 3,929 Redemptions payable to Unitholders 649,611 584,367 Redemption payable to Managing Owner - 300,726 Accrued expenses 183,280 89,421 Cash overdraft denominated in foreign currencies (cost $ 79,166 and $ 62,661 ) 80,257

NOTES TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (UNAUDITED)

NOTES TO FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (UNAUDITED) 1. BASIS OF PRESENTATION AND SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANT ACCOUNTING POLICIES The accompanying financial statements, in the opinion of management, include all adjustments (consisting only of normal recurring adjustments) necessary for a fair presentation of Global Macro Trust's (the "Trust") financial condition at June 30, 2025 (unaudited) and December 31, 2024 (audited) and the results of its operations for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025 and 2024 (unaudited). These financial statements present the results of interim periods and do not include all disclosures normally provided in annual financial statements. It is suggested that these financial statements be read in conjunction with the audited financial statements and notes included in the Trust's annual report on Form 10-K filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission as of and for the year ended December 31, 2024. The December 31, 2024 information has been derived from the audited financial statements as of and for the year ended December 31, 2024. Effective May 1, 2022, Units in the Trust were no longer offered for sale. For existing investors in the Trust, business has been and will be conducted as usual. There was no change in trading, operations, monthly statements and other reporting, and redemptions will continue to be offered on a monthly basis. As a registrant with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC"), the Trust is subject to the regulatory requirements under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Prior to May 1, 2022, the Trust was also subject to the regulatory requirements under the Securities Act of 1933. As a commodity investment pool, the Trust is subject to the regulations of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, an agency of the United States (U.S.) government which regulates most aspects of the commodity futures industry; rules of the National Futures Association, an industry self-regulatory organization; and the requir

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