USO Swings to $9.2M Loss Amid Futures Market Volatility

TL;DR

**USO is bleeding cash, avoid this oil ETF as futures losses mount and investor capital flees.**

AI Summary

United States Oil Fund, LP (USO) reported a net loss of $9,194,977 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, a significant decline from the net income of $124,773,066 reported for the same period in 2024. This shift was primarily driven by a change in unrealized gain (loss) on open commodity futures contracts, which moved from a gain of $4,993,638 in 2024 to a loss of $30,499,210 in 2025. Realized gains on closed commodity futures contracts also decreased substantially, from $75,755,922 in 2024 to $5,568,220 in 2025. Total assets decreased from $1,099,083,929 at December 31, 2024, to $902,868,205 at September 30, 2025. Partners' Capital also saw a reduction, from $1,088,223,487 to $884,669,387 over the same period. The fund's investment strategy continues to focus on NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Futures, holding 11,962 contracts as of September 30, 2025, with a notional amount of $748,138,130.

Why It Matters

This filing reveals a significant financial downturn for USO, shifting from a substantial profit to a loss, which directly impacts investors holding USO shares. The decline in net asset value per share from $75.45 to $73.58, and the reduction in outstanding shares from 14,423,603 to 12,023,603, indicate reduced investor confidence and capital outflows. For the broader market, USO's performance reflects the inherent volatility and risks associated with crude oil futures, especially given the impact of contango and backwardation. Competitively, this performance could make other oil-related investment vehicles appear more attractive if they demonstrate better risk management or returns.

Risk Assessment

Risk Level: high — The fund reported a net loss of $9,194,977 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, a stark contrast to the $124,773,066 net income in the prior year. This is primarily due to a $30,499,210 change in unrealized loss on open commodity futures contracts, indicating significant exposure to adverse market movements in crude oil futures.

Analyst Insight

Investors should consider reducing or exiting positions in USO given the significant net losses and declining partners' capital. The fund's susceptibility to contango and backwardation, coupled with substantial unrealized losses on futures contracts, suggests continued volatility and potential for further capital erosion.

Financial Highlights

debt To Equity

N/A

revenue

N/A

operating Margin

N/A

total Assets

$902,868,205

total Debt

N/A

net Income

-$9,194,977

eps

N/A

gross Margin

N/A

cash Position

$700,563,699

revenue Growth

N/A

Key Numbers

• $9.2M — Net Loss (for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, a significant reversal from $124.8M net income in 2024)
• $30.5M — Unrealized Loss on Futures (change in unrealized loss on open commodity futures contracts for the nine months ended September 30, 2025)
• $884.7M — Partners' Capital (at September 30, 2025, down from $1.088B at December 31, 2024)
• $73.58 — Net Asset Value per Share (at September 30, 2025, decreased from $75.45 at December 31, 2024)
• 12,023,603 — Limited Partners' Shares Outstanding (at September 30, 2025, a reduction from 14,423,603 at December 31, 2024)
• $700.6M — Cash and Cash Equivalents (at September 30, 2025, down from $727.5M at December 31, 2024)
• $18.2M — Total Liabilities (at September 30, 2025, an increase from $10.9M at December 31, 2024)
• 11,962 — NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Futures Contracts (held long as of September 30, 2025)

Key Players & Entities

• United States Oil Fund, LP (company) — registrant
• United States Commodity Funds LLC (company) — general partner and manager of USO
• NYSE Arca, Inc. (regulator) — exchange where USO shares are traded
• NYMEX (regulator) — exchange for WTI Crude Oil Futures
• Societe Generale (company) — OTC commodity swap counterparty
• Macquarie Bank Ltd. (company) — OTC commodity swap counterparty
• $9,194,977 (dollar_amount) — net loss for nine months ended September 30, 2025
• $124,773,066 (dollar_amount) — net income for nine months ended September 30, 2024
• $30,499,210 (dollar_amount) — change in unrealized loss on open commodity futures contracts
• $884,669,387 (dollar_amount) — Total Partners' Capital at September 30, 2025

FAQ

Risk Factors

• Commodity Price Volatility [high — market]: USO's investment objective is to track the daily changes in the price of light sweet crude oil futures contracts. The price of crude oil is highly volatile and can be affected by geopolitical events, supply and demand dynamics, and economic conditions. This volatility directly impacts USO's Net Asset Value (NAV). For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, USO reported a net loss of $9,194,977, a significant reversal from a net income of $124,773,066 in the prior year, largely due to a $30,499,210 unrealized loss on open commodity futures contracts.
• Futures Contract Rollover Risk [medium — market]: USO invests in futures contracts, which have expiration dates. To maintain exposure to the near-month contract, USO must 'roll' its positions into the next expiring contract. This process can incur costs and may result in losses if the price of the next contract is higher than the current one (contango). The fund's strategy involves a ten-day roll period, which can lead to deviations from the spot price of crude oil.
• Decline in Partners' Capital and Assets [medium — financial]: Partners' Capital decreased from $1,088,223,487 at December 31, 2024, to $884,669,387 at September 30, 2025. Total Assets also declined from $1,099,083,929 to $902,868,205 over the same period. This reduction is primarily driven by the net loss incurred and potentially by share redemptions.
• Reliance on General Partner [low — operational]: USO is managed by its general partner, United States Commodity Funds LLC (USCF). The LP Agreement grants full management control to USCF. Investors rely on the expertise and judgment of USCF for investment decisions and operational management. Any deficiencies in USCF's management could adversely affect USO's performance.
• Increased Liabilities [low — financial]: Total Liabilities increased from $10,860,442 at December 31, 2024, to $18,198,818 at September 30, 2025. This increase is primarily due to a rise in 'Payable for shares redeemed' from $0 to $14,715,889, indicating significant outflows from the fund.

Industry Context

The crude oil market is characterized by high volatility driven by global supply and demand, geopolitical events, and economic factors. USO operates within this environment, aiming to track the price of WTI crude oil futures. The industry faces ongoing challenges related to energy transition policies, OPEC+ production decisions, and global economic growth forecasts, all of which can significantly impact oil prices and, consequently, the performance of oil-tracking ETFs like USO.

Regulatory Implications

As a commodity pool, USO is subject to regulations by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the National Futures Association (NFA). Changes in these regulations, particularly concerning derivatives trading or leverage, could impact USO's investment strategy and operational costs. The fund's structure and disclosures are designed to comply with these regulatory frameworks.

What Investors Should Do

1. Monitor crude oil price volatility closely, as it is the primary driver of USO's performance and the cause of its recent net loss.
2. Understand the impact of futures contract rollovers (contango/backwardation) on USO's ability to track spot prices and its potential for losses.
3. Evaluate the significant decrease in Partners' Capital and Assets, which indicates potential investor outflows and a shrinking fund size.
4. Consider the increased liabilities, particularly 'Payable for shares redeemed,' as a sign of recent fund redemptions.
5. Assess the fund's reliance on its General Partner, USCF, and its management capabilities in navigating volatile markets.

Key Dates

• 2025-09-30: Nine months ended September 30, 2025 — Reported a net loss of $9,194,977, a significant decline from the prior year's net income, driven by unrealized losses on futures contracts.
• 2024-12-31: As of December 31, 2024 — Total Assets were $1,099,083,929 and Partners' Capital was $1,088,223,487.
• 2025-09-30: As of September 30, 2025 — Total Assets decreased to $902,868,205 and Partners' Capital decreased to $884,669,387.
• 2025-09-30: NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Futures Contracts Held — USO held 11,962 long contracts with a notional amount of $748,138,130, representing its primary investment exposure.

Glossary

Benchmark Oil Futures Contract

The near-month futures contract for light, sweet crude oil traded on the NYMEX, which USO uses as its benchmark for tracking oil prices. (USO's investment objective is to mirror the daily percentage changes of this contract.)

Unrealized Gain (Loss)

The change in value of open futures contracts that have not yet been closed out. It represents potential profit or loss. (A significant unrealized loss of $30,499,210 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, was a primary driver of USO's net loss.)

Realized Gain (Loss)

The profit or loss resulting from closing out futures contracts. This is the actual profit or loss recognized by the fund. (Realized gains decreased substantially from $75,755,922 in 2024 to $5,568,220 in 2025, contributing to the overall decline in performance.)

Net Asset Value (NAV)

The per-share market value of a fund, calculated by taking the total value of its assets, subtracting liabilities, and dividing by the number of outstanding shares. (USO's NAV per share decreased from $75.45 at December 31, 2024, to $73.58 at September 30, 2025.)

Contango

A market condition where futures prices are higher than the spot price, or where future prices are progressively higher than the current price for contracts with longer maturities. (This condition can lead to losses for USO during its contract rollover process.)

Commodity Pool

A pooled investment fund that trades in commodity futures contracts, options on futures, or other commodity interests. (USO is registered as a commodity pool, subject to specific regulations.)

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Compared to the prior year's period, USO has experienced a dramatic shift from a net income of $124,773,066 to a net loss of $9,194,977 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025. This reversal is primarily attributed to a substantial negative swing in unrealized gains on futures contracts, moving from a gain of $4,993,638 to a loss of $30,499,210. Total assets and partners' capital have also seen a notable decline, reflecting the challenging market conditions and the fund's performance.

Filing Documents

• uso-20250930x10q.htm (10-Q) — 1308KB
• uso-20250930xex31d1.htm (EX-31.1) — 11KB
• uso-20250930xex31d2.htm (EX-31.2) — 12KB
• uso-20250930xex32d1.htm (EX-32.1) — 5KB
• uso-20250930xex32d2.htm (EX-32.2) — 6KB
• uso-20250930x10q009.jpg (GRAPHIC) — 41KB
• uso-20250930x10q010.jpg (GRAPHIC) — 59KB
• uso-20250930x10q011.jpg (GRAPHIC) — 61KB
• uso-20250930x10q012.jpg (GRAPHIC) — 63KB
• uso-20250930x10q013.jpg (GRAPHIC) — 56KB
• 0001104659-25-108424.txt ( ) — 5381KB
• uso-20250930.xsd (EX-101.SCH) — 43KB
• uso-20250930_cal.xml (EX-101.CAL) — 29KB
• uso-20250930_def.xml (EX-101.DEF) — 112KB
• uso-20250930_lab.xml (EX-101.LAB) — 253KB
• uso-20250930_pre.xml (EX-101.PRE) — 212KB
• uso-20250930x10q_htm.xml (XML) — 695KB

FINANCIAL INFORMATION

Part I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION Page

Financial Statements

Item 1. Financial Statements. 1

Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations

Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations. 21

Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk

Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk. 41

Controls and Procedures

Item 4. Controls and Procedures. 42

OTHER INFORMATION

Part II. OTHER INFORMATION

Legal Proceedings

Item 1. Legal Proceedings. 43

Risk Factors

Item 1A. Risk Factors. 46

Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds

Item 2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds. 46

Defaults Upon Senior Securities

Item 3. Defaults Upon Senior Securities. 47

Mine Safety Disclosures

Item 4. Mine Safety Disclosures. 47

Other Information

Item 5. Other Information. 47

Exhibits

Item 6. Exhibits. 48 Table of Contents

FINANCIAL INFORMATION

Part I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION

Financial Statements

Item 1. Financial Statements. Index to Financial Statements Documents Page 2 Schedules of Investments at September 30, 2025 (Unaudited) and December 31, 2024 3 5 6 7

Notes to Financial Statements (Unaudited) for the period ended September 30, 2025

Notes to Financial Statements (Unaudited) for the period ended September 30, 2025 8 1 Table of Contents United States Oil Fund, LP At September 30, 2025 (Unaudited) and December 31, 2024 September 30, 2025 December 31, 2024 Assets Cash and cash equivalents (at cost $ 700,563,699 and $ 727,450,000 , respectively) (Notes 2 and 5) $ 700,563,699 $ 727,450,000 Equity in trading accounts: Cash and cash equivalents (at cost $ 200,948,188 and $ 280,259,886 , respectively) 200,948,188 280,259,886 Unrealized gain (loss) on open commodity futures contracts ( 2,068,190 ) 28,431,020 Unrealized gain (loss) on open OTC commodity swap contracts 91,039 ( 2,068 ) Due from Broker — 13,487,676 Receivable for shares sold — 45,270,292 Dividends receivable 2,306,894 2,777,123 Interest receivable 774,213 1,366,692 Prepaid insurance 251,362 42,308 ETF transaction fees receivable 1,000 1,000 Total Assets $ 902,868,205 $ 1,099,083,929 Liabilities and Partners' Capital Payable due to Broker $ 1,490,047 $ 7,872,455 Payable for shares redeemed 14,715,889 — General Partner management fees payable (Note 3) 347,549 436,917 Professional fees payable 1,434,780 2,011,267 Due to custody — 318,003 Brokerage commissions payable 119,336 119,336 Directors' fees payable 32,131 33,106 License fees payable 59,086 69,358 Total Liabilities 18,198,818 10,860,442 Commitments and Contingencies (Notes 3, 4 & 5) Partners' Capital General Partners — — Limited Partners 884,669,387 1,088,223,487 Total Partners' Capital 884,669,387 1,088,223,487 Total Liabilities and Partners' Capital $ 902,868,205 $ 1,099,083,929 Limited Partners' shares outstanding 12,023,603 14,423,603 Net asset value per share $ 73.58 $ 75.45 Market value per share $ 73.75 $ 75.55 See accompanying notes to financial statements. 2 Table of Contents

Notes to Financial Statements (Unaudited)

Notes to Financial Statements (Unaudited) For the period ended September 30, 2025 NOTE 1 — ORGANIZATION AND BUSINESS The United States Oil Fund, LP ("USO") was organized as a limited partnership under the laws of the state of Delaware on May 12, 2005. USO is a commodity pool that issues limited partnership interests ("shares") that are traded on the NYSE Arca, Inc. (the "NYSE Arca"). Prior to November 25, 2008, USO's shares traded on the American Stock Exchange (the "AMEX"). USO will continue in perpetuity, unless terminated sooner upon the occurrence of one or more events as described in its Seventh Amended and Restated Agreement of Limited Partnership dated as of December 15, 2017 (the "LP Agreement"), which grants full management control to its general partner, United States Commodity Funds LLC ("USCF"). The investment objective of USO is for the daily changes in percentage terms of its shares' per share net asset value ("NAV") to reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of the spot price of light, sweet crude oil delivered to Cushing, Oklahoma, as measured by the daily changes in the price of the Benchmark Oil Futures Contract, plus interest earned on USO's collateral holdings, less USO's expenses. The Benchmark Oil Futures Contract is the futures contract for light, sweet crude oil as traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (the "NYMEX") that is the near month contract to expire and changes, over a ten-day period, into the NYMEX futures contract that is the next month to expire. The change from the near month contract to the next month contract occurs at the beginning of each month and will be approximately proportional, relative to total net assets, over each day of the ten-day roll period. USO seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing so that the average daily percentage change in USO's NAV for any period of 30 successive valuation days will be within plus/minus ten percent (10%) of the average daily percentage change in the price of

View Full Filing

View this 10-Q filing on SEC EDGAR