Ceres Tactical Swings to Profit YTD, Assets Decline Amid Redemptions

TL;DR

**Ceres Tactical is bleeding capital with massive redemptions, despite a YTD profit, signaling trouble ahead for this commodity pool.**

AI Summary

Ceres Tactical Commodity L.P. reported a net income of $86,642 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, a significant improvement from a net loss of $3,502,432 in the prior year period. However, the partnership experienced a net loss of $2,223,444 for the three months ended September 30, 2025, compared to a net loss of $4,046,315 for the same period in 2024. Total assets decreased by 13.59% from $132,652,147 at December 31, 2024, to $114,608,229 at September 30, 2025. Partners' capital also declined by 11.21% from $123,195,247 to $109,388,582 over the same period. Key business changes include the full redemption of investment from CMF NL Master Fund LLC and the termination of Northlander Commodity Advisors LLP and EMC Capital Advisors, LLC as commodity trading advisors, both effective December 31, 2024. The partnership's investment strategy has broadened beyond its initial focus on energy, now encompassing energy, grains, livestock, metals, and softs. Redemptions by Limited Partners totaled $15,674,448 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, indicating significant capital outflows.

Why It Matters

This filing reveals a mixed performance for Ceres Tactical Commodity L.P., with a year-to-date profit but a quarterly loss and a notable decline in total assets and partners' capital. For investors, the significant redemptions of $15,674,448 by Limited Partners suggest a lack of confidence or a shift in investment strategy, potentially impacting liquidity and future growth. The competitive landscape for commodity pools is intense, and sustained capital outflows could weaken Ceres's ability to compete for top trading talent and market opportunities. Employees and customers might view the asset decline as a sign of instability, while the broader market will watch if this trend continues, reflecting on the health of tactical commodity strategies.

Risk Assessment

Risk Level: high — The partnership faces high risk due to significant capital outflows, with Limited Partner redemptions totaling $15,674,448 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025. This represents a substantial portion of the partners' capital, which decreased by 11.21% from $123,195,247 to $109,388,582. Such large redemptions can impact the partnership's ability to execute its trading strategy effectively and maintain operational scale.

Analyst Insight

Investors should exercise caution and thoroughly evaluate the reasons behind the substantial Limited Partner redemptions. Consider the impact of these outflows on the partnership's long-term viability and its ability to generate consistent returns, especially given the volatile nature of commodity interests.

Financial Highlights

debt To Equity

0.05

revenue

N/A

operating Margin

N/A

total Assets

$114,608,229

total Debt

$0

net Income

$86,642

eps

N/A

gross Margin

N/A

cash Position

$90,285,599

revenue Growth

N/A

Key Numbers

• $86,642 — Net income for nine months ended Sep 30, 2025 (Improved from a net loss of $3,502,432 in the prior year period.)
• $2,223,444 — Net loss for three months ended Sep 30, 2025 (Compared to a net loss of $4,046,315 for the same period in 2024.)
• $114,608,229 — Total assets at Sep 30, 2025 (Decreased by 13.59% from $132,652,147 at Dec 31, 2024.)
• $109,388,582 — Total partners' capital at Sep 30, 2025 (Declined by 11.21% from $123,195,247 at Dec 31, 2024.)
• $15,674,448 — Limited Partner redemptions for nine months ended Sep 30, 2025 (Significant capital outflow impacting partners' capital.)
• 40,732.0817 — Class A Redeemable Units outstanding at Sep 30, 2025 (Decreased from 45,958.9087 at Dec 31, 2024.)
• $2,625.44 — Net asset value per Class A Redeemable Unit at Sep 30, 2025 (Slight decrease from $2,627.20 at Dec 31, 2024.)
• $1,036,384 — Clearing fees related to direct investments for nine months ended Sep 30, 2025 (Increased from $737,390 in the prior year period.)
• $1,022,017 — Management fees for nine months ended Sep 30, 2025 (Decreased from $1,261,201 in the prior year period.)
• $1,755,142 — Premiums received for options written at Sep 30, 2025 (Decreased from $3,312,604 at Dec 31, 2024.)

Key Players & Entities

• Ceres Tactical Commodity L.P. (company) — registrant
• Ceres Managed Futures LLC (company) — General Partner and commodity pool operator
• Morgan Stanley (company) — ultimate owner of the General Partner
• Millburn Ridgefield Corporation (company) — commodity trading advisor
• Ospraie Management, LLC (company) — commodity trading advisor
• Drakewood Capital Management Limited (company) — commodity trading advisor
• Opus Futures, LLC (company) — commodity trading advisor
• CMF Drakewood Master Fund LLC (company) — the Fund in which the Partnership invests
• Morgan Stanley Wealth Management (company) — selling agent for Redeemable Units
• SS&C Technologies, Inc. (company) — Administrator for administrative functions

FAQ

Risk Factors

• Commodity Market Volatility [high — market]: The Partnership trades volatile commodity interests across energy, grains, livestock, metals, and softs. These markets involve a high degree of market risk, and past trading performance is not indicative of future results. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, the Partnership reported net income of $86,642, a significant improvement from a net loss of $3,502,432 in the prior year period, but experienced a net loss of $2,223,444 in the three months ended September 30, 2025.
• Significant Capital Outflows [medium — financial]: Limited Partners redeemed $15,674,448 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025. This outflow contributed to a decrease in total assets by 13.59% to $114,608,229 and a decline in partners' capital by 11.21% to $109,388,582 from December 31, 2024, to September 30, 2025.
• Changes in Trading Advisors [medium — operational]: The partnership terminated Northlander Commodity Advisors LLP and EMC Capital Advisors, LLC as commodity trading advisors, effective December 31, 2024. All trading decisions are now made by Millburn Ridgefield Corporation, Ospraie Management, LLC, Drakewood Capital Management Limited, and Opus Futures, LLC. This change in management could impact strategy and performance.
• Investment Strategy Broadening [medium — financial]: The Partnership has broadened its investment strategy beyond its initial focus on energy to include grains, livestock, metals, and softs. This diversification may introduce new risks and requires adaptation to different market dynamics.
• Fair Value Accounting and Estimates [low — financial]: The Partnership's financial statements are prepared using estimates and assumptions that affect reported amounts. While all investments were carried at fair value and classified as Level 1 or Level 2 measurements, actual results could differ from these estimates, potentially impacting reported performance.

Industry Context

The commodity trading landscape is highly competitive and subject to significant volatility driven by global economic factors, geopolitical events, and supply/demand dynamics. Ceres Tactical Commodity L.P. operates within this environment, diversifying its strategy across energy, grains, livestock, metals, and softs. The recent changes in trading advisors and the broadening of investment focus suggest an adaptation to market conditions and a potential search for alpha across a wider range of commodity sectors.

Regulatory Implications

As a limited partnership engaged in commodity trading, Ceres Tactical Commodity L.P. is subject to regulations by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the National Futures Association (NFA). Changes in trading advisors and the nature of its investments necessitate ongoing compliance with reporting and operational requirements. The partnership's reliance on registered CTAs underscores the importance of regulatory oversight in this sector.

What Investors Should Do

1. Monitor recent quarterly performance closely.
2. Assess the impact of advisor changes on strategy and performance.
3. Evaluate the sustainability of capital inflows/outflows.
4. Analyze the performance across the diversified commodity sectors.

Key Dates

• 2024-12-31: Termination of Northlander Commodity Advisors LLP and EMC Capital Advisors, LLC as commodity trading advisors. — Marks a significant shift in the partnership's advisory structure and potentially its trading strategy.
• 2025-09-30: Partnership reported total assets of $114,608,229 and total partners' capital of $109,388,582. — Reflects a decrease in assets and capital compared to year-end 2024, driven by redemptions and trading performance.
• 2025-09-30: Net income of $86,642 for the nine months ended September 30, 2025. — Indicates a substantial turnaround from a net loss in the prior year period, though the most recent quarter showed a loss.
• 2025-09-30: Net loss of $2,223,444 for the three months ended September 30, 2025. — Highlights recent underperformance despite the year-to-date improvement, signaling potential short-term volatility.

Glossary

Commodity Interests

Financial instruments whose value is derived from a specified underlying commodity, such as futures contracts, options on futures, and forward contracts. (These are the primary instruments traded by Ceres Tactical Commodity L.P., exposing it to market risks.)

Redeemable Units

Units of partnership interest that can be redeemed by the holder, typically at net asset value, subject to certain terms and conditions. (The redemption of these units by Limited Partners has led to significant capital outflows and a reduction in total partners' capital.)

Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA)

An individual or organization registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that provides advice, analysis, or reports concerning trading in commodity futures or options. (The partnership has changed its CTAs, which are responsible for making trading decisions.)

Net Asset Value (NAV)

The per-share market value of a fund or partnership's assets, minus liabilities. (The NAV per Class A Redeemable Unit saw a slight decrease, reflecting the overall performance of the partnership's investments.)

Fair Value Measurements

A framework for measuring and reporting fair value of assets and liabilities, categorized into Levels 1, 2, and 3 based on the observability of inputs. (The partnership's investments are carried at fair value, with all being classified as Level 1 or 2, indicating reliance on observable market data.)

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Ceres Tactical Commodity L.P. has shown a significant improvement in profitability for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, reporting a net income of $86,642 compared to a substantial net loss in the prior year. However, this positive trend was overshadowed by a net loss in the most recent quarter. Total assets and partners' capital have declined, reflecting considerable capital outflows from Limited Partners. The partnership has also undergone structural changes, including the termination of two commodity trading advisors and a broadening of its investment strategy across multiple commodity sectors.

Filing Documents

• d74013d10q.htm (10-Q) — 1583KB
• d74013dex311.htm (EX-31.1) — 10KB
• d74013dex312.htm (EX-31.2) — 10KB
• d74013dex321.htm (EX-32.1) — 4KB
• d74013dex322.htm (EX-32.2) — 4KB
• 0001193125-25-273990.txt ( ) — 6552KB
• ck0001325676-20250930.xsd (EX-101.SCH) — 690KB
• d74013d10q_htm.xml (XML) — 1555KB

FINANCIAL INFORMATION

PART I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION

Financial Statements

Item 1. Financial Statements . Ceres Tactical Commodity L.P. September 30, 2025 (Unaudited) December 31, 2024 Assets: Investment in the Fund (1) , at fair value $ 12,027,315 $ 17,511,230 Redemptions receivable from the Fund 1,037,245 3,866,784 Equity in trading account: Unrestricted cash 90,285,599 98,005,370 Restricted cash 4,409,786 7,364,913 Foreign cash (cost $ 520,917 and $ 173,642 at September 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively) 565,990 179,838 Options purchased, at fair value (premiums paid $ 5,342,930 and $ 6,183,472 at September 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively) 5,970,699 5,354,371 Total equity in trading account 101,232,074 110,904,492 Interest receivable 311,595 369,641 Total assets $ 114,608,229 $ 132,652,147 Liabilities and Partners' Capital: Liabilities: Net unrealized depreciation on open futures contracts $ 75,122 $ 200,937 Net unrealized depreciation on open forward contracts 188,727 197,928 Options written, at fair value (premiums received $ 1,755,142 and $ 3,312,604 at September 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively) 1,580,002 3,281,715 Accrued expenses: Ongoing selling agent fees 69,072 78,946 Management fees 108,974 120,743 General Partner fees 70,276 80,446 Incentive fees - 663,398 Professional fees 254,368 178,793 Redemptions payable to General Partner - 149,980 Redemptions payable to Limited Partners 2,873,106 4,504,014 Total liabilities 5,219,647 9,456,900 Partners' Capital: General Partner, Class Z, 602.1040 Redeemable Units outstanding at September 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024 1,323,947 1,317,374 Limited Partners, Class A, 40,732.0817 and 45,958.9087 Redeemable Units outstanding at September 30, 2025 and December 31, 2024, respectively 106,939,594 120,743,082 Limited Partners, Class D, 100.0580 Redeemable Units outstanding at September 30, 2025 and

Notes to Financial Statements

Notes to Financial Statements (Unaudited) 1. Organization: Ceres Tactical Commodity L.P. (the "Partnership") is a limited partnership organized on April 20, 2005 under the partnership laws of the State of New York to engage, directly and indirectly, in the speculative trading of commodity interests on United States ("U.S.") and international futures, options on futures and forward markets. The Partnership may also engage, directly or indirectly, in swap transactions and other derivative transactions with the approval of the General Partner (as defined below). Initially, the Partnership's investment strategy focused on energy and energy-related investments. While the Partnership is expected to continue to have significant exposure to energy and energy-related markets, such trading will no longer be the Partnership's primary focus. Therefore, the Partnership's past trading performance will not necessarily be indicative of future results. The sectors traded include energy, grains, livestock, metals and softs. The commodity interests that are traded by the Partnership, directly or indirectly through its investment in the Funds (as defined below) are volatile and involve a high degree of market risk. The General Partner may also determine to invest up to all of the Partnership's assets (directly or indirectly through its investment in the Funds) in U.S. Treasury bills and/or money market mutual funds, including money market mutual funds managed by Morgan Stanley or its affiliates. During the initial offering period, the Partnership sold 11,925 redeemable units of limited partnership interest ("Redeemable Units"). The Partnership commenced trading on September 6, 2005. The Partnership privately and continuously offers Redeemable Units to qualified investors. There is no maximum number of Redeemable Units that may be sold by the Partnership. Ceres Managed Futures LLC, a Delaware limited liability company, acts as the general partner (the "General Partner") and commo

Notes to Financial Statements

Notes to Financial Statements (Unaudited) The programs traded by each Advisor on behalf of the Partnership are: Millburn — Commodity Program, Ospraie — Commodity Program, Drakewood – Drakewood Prospect Fund Strategy, Opus – Opus Advanced Ag Program and prior to Northlander's termination effective December 31, 2024, Northlander – Commodity Program and prior to EMC's termination effective December 31, 2024, EMC – Commodity Program. The General Partner may modify or terminate the allocation of assets among the Advisors at any time and may allocate assets to additional Advisors at any time. The Partnership and CMF Drakewood Master Fund LLC ("Drakewood Master") have entered, and (prior to its termination) NL Master had entered, into futures brokerage account agreements with MS&Co. Drakewood Master is referred to as the "Fund." References herein to "Funds" may also include, as relevant, NL Master. The Partnership, directly and through its investment in the Funds, pays MS&Co. (or will reimburse MS&Co. if previously paid) its allocable share of all trading fees for the clearing and, where applicable, the execution of transactions as well as exchange, user, give-up, floor brokerage and National Futures Association fees (collectively, the "clearing fees"). The Partnership has entered into a selling agreement with Morgan Stanley Wealth Management (the "Selling Agreement"). Under the Selling Agreement the Partnership pays Morgan Stanley Wealth Management a monthly ongoing selling agent fee equal to 0.75 % per year of adjusted month-end net assets for Class A and Class D Redeemable Units. Morgan Stanley Wealth Management pays a portion of its ongoing selling agent fees to properly registered or exempted financial advisors who have sold Class A and Class D Redeemable Units. The ongoing selling agent fees for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 for Class A were $ 209,596 and $ 658,313 , respectively. The ongoing selling agent fees for the three and nine months

Notes to Financial Statements

Notes to Financial Statements (Unaudited) Use of Estimates. The preparation of financial statements and accompanying notes in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America ("GAAP") requires the General Partner to make estimates and assumptions that affect the reported amounts of assets and liabilities, income and expenses, and related disclosures of contingent assets and liabilities in the financial statements and accompanying notes. As a result, actual results could differ from these estimates, and those differences could be material. Profit Allocation. Except for class specific expenses, the General Partner and each limited partner of the Partnership share in the profits and losses of the Partnership in proportion to the amount of Partnership interest owned by each, except that no limited partner is liable for obligations of the Partnership in excess of its capital contributions and profits, if any, net of distributions or redemptions and losses, if any. The Partnership has not provided a Statement of Cash Flows, as permitted by Accounting Standards Codification ("ASC") 230, "Statement of Cash Flows." The Statements of Changes in Partners' Capital is included herein, and as of and for the periods ended September 30, 2025 and 2024, the Partnership carried no debt and all of the Partnership's and the Funds' investments were carried at fair value and classified as Level 1 or Level 2 measurements. Partnership's Investment in the Funds. The Partnership carries its investment in Drakewood Master based on the Partnership's (1) net contribution to Drakewood Master and (2) its allocated share of the undistributed profits and losses, including realized gains or losses and net change in unrealized gains or losses, of Drakewood Master. The Partnership carried its investment in NL Master based on the Partnership's (1) net contribution to NL Master and (2) its allocated share of the undistributed pr

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