Shell Q4 2023 Outlook: Integrated Gas Production 880-920 kboe/d

TL;DR

**Shell just dropped a sneak peek at Q4, expect strong Integrated Gas production and higher trading profits!**

AI Summary

Shell plc provided an update for its fourth quarter 2023 outlook, projecting Integrated Gas production between 880-920 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d) and LNG liquefaction volumes of 6.9-7.3 million tonnes (MT). The company expects underlying operating expenses for Integrated Gas to be $1.1-$1.3 billion, with pre-tax depreciation between $1.3-$1.7 billion and a taxation charge of $0.9-$1.2 billion. This matters to investors because it offers a preliminary glimpse into Shell's financial health and operational performance for the quarter ending December 31, 2023, ahead of the official results release on February 1, 2024, allowing them to adjust their expectations and investment strategies.

Why It Matters

This filing provides early insight into Shell's Q4 2023 performance, particularly in its crucial Integrated Gas segment, which can influence investor sentiment and stock valuation before official results are published.

Risk Assessment

Risk Level: low — This filing is an outlook update, providing forward-looking statements rather than reporting negative events, thus posing a low immediate risk.

Analyst Insight

An investor should use these preliminary figures to compare against their own models and analyst consensus, adjusting expectations for Shell's Q4 2023 earnings ahead of the official release on February 1, 2024, particularly focusing on the 'significantly higher' Trading & Optimisation comment.

Key Numbers

• 880 - 920 kboe/d — Integrated Gas Production (expected production volume for Q4 2023)
• 6.9 - 7.3 MT — LNG Liquefaction Volumes (expected liquefaction volumes for Q4 2023)
• $1.1 - $1.3 billion — Underlying Opex (expected underlying operating expenses for Integrated Gas in Q4 2023)
• $1.3 - $1.7 billion — Pre-tax Depreciation (expected pre-tax depreciation for Integrated Gas in Q4 2023)
• $0.9 - $1.2 billion — Taxation Charge (expected taxation charge for Integrated Gas in Q4 2023)

Key Players & Entities

• Shell plc (company) — registrant providing the Q4 2023 outlook
• Integrated Gas (company) — key business segment for which outlook figures are provided
• January 2024 (date) — month of the report
• February 1, 2024 (date) — scheduled publication date for Q4 2023 results

Forward-Looking Statements

• Shell plc's actual Q4 2023 Integrated Gas production will fall within the 880-920 kboe/d range. (Shell plc) — medium confidence, target: 2024-02-01
• Shell plc's Q4 2023 Trading & Optimisation results will show a substantial increase compared to Q3 2023. (Shell plc) — high confidence, target: 2024-02-01

FAQ

Key Financial Figures

• $0.2 billion — associates in Q4'23 is expected to be ~$0.2 billion. Q4'23 exploration well-write offs are
• $10 — d EBITDA: Indicative refining margin $10/bbl Indicative chemicals margin $125
• $125 — $10/bbl Indicative chemicals margin $125/tonne The Chemicals sub segment adjust
• $0.9 billion — working capital expected to include an ~$0.9 billion outflow related to timing of payments o
• $1.0 billion — tal movements is expected to include a ~$1.0 billion payment of German Mineral Oil Taxes.
• $16 — d Outlook Indicative refining margin $16/bbl $10/bbl Indicative chemicals mar
• $115 — $10/bbl Indicative chemicals margin $115/tonne $125/tonne Volume Data Q3'23

Filing Documents

• f6k_010924.htm (6-K) — 88KB
• 0001171843-24-000148.txt ( ) — 89KB

Forward-Looking Statements

Forward-Looking Statements This announcement contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell to market risks and statements expressing management's expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as "aim", "ambition", anticipate'', believe'', could'', estimate'', expect'', goals'', intend'', may'', "milestones", objectives'', outlook'', plan'', probably'', project'', risks'', "schedule", seek'', should'', target'', will'' and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this announcement, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell's products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing cou

forward-looking statements contained in this announcement

forward-looking statements contained in this announcement. Shell's net carbon intensity Also, in this announcement we may refer to Shell's "Net Carbon Intensity", which includes Shell's carbon emissions from the production of our energy products, our suppliers' carbon emissions in supplying energy for that production and our customers' carbon emissions associated with their use of the energy products we sell. Shell only controls its own emissions. The use of the term Shell's "Net Carbon Intensity" is for convenience only and not intended to suggest these emissions are those of Shell plc or its subsidiaries. Shell's net-Zero Emissions Target Shell's operating plan, outlook and budgets are forecasted for a ten-year period and are updated every year. They reflect the current economic environment and what we can reasonably expect to see over the next ten years. Accordingly, they reflect our Scope 1, Scope 2 and Net Carbon Intensity (NCI) targets over the next ten years. However, Shell's operating plans cannot reflect our 2050 net-zero emissions target and 2035 NCI target, as these targets are currently outside our planning period. In the future, as society moves towards net-zero emissions, we expect Shell's operating plans to reflect this movement. However, if society is not net zero in 2050, as of today, there would be significant risk that Shell may not meet this target. Forward Looking Non-GAAP measures This announcement may contain certain forward-looking non-GAAP measures such as IFRS, including Adjusted Earnings, "Adjusted EBITDA", Cash flow from operating activities excluding working capital movements, Cash capital expenditure, Net debt and Underlying opex. Adjusted Earnings and Adjusted EBITDA are measures used to evaluate Shell's performance in the period and over time. The "Adjusted Earnings" and Adjusted EBITDA are measures which aim to facilitate a comparative understanding of Shell's financial performance from period to period by removing the effec

SIGNATURES

SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized. Shell plc (Registrant) Date: January 9, 2024 /s/ Caroline Omloo Caroline Omloo Company Secretary

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View this 6-K filing on SEC EDGAR